Trends and associations between preferred institutional influence, expectations and emotional outcomes among adolescents in the US: Results from monitoring the future.

Résumé

In the US, happiness is declining and dissatisfaction with the state of the nation is growing. At the same time, trust and support for several institutions (ranging from the government to the police, churches and news media) have similarly fallen. At present, it remains unclear how these trends in perceptions about institutions are linked to the growing dissatisfaction among young people living in America, or how this may vary by political ideology. This study used data from Monitoring the Future (N = 125,329, years: 1976-2023, grade 12) to identify trends in how much influence adolescents would prefer institutions to have, as well as a variety of expectations and emotional outcomes, overall and by political ideology. It also examined links between these institutional preferences and outcomes. Over the past half century, adolescents' attitudes on institutional power have shifted, with overall declines in support for institutional power (except for unions), but strong heterogeneity by political ideology. Polarization of views on institutions by political ideology was most notable for perceptions of the police, the military, and churches. This is paired with rising hopelessness and unhappiness, as well as worsening expectations about the country, world, and life, particularly for those with more extreme political ideologies. Given the links between preferred change in institutional influence and these outcomes, there are clear ties between adolescents' broader outlooks and their perceptions of institutions and their actions. These trends and associations warrant efforts to address the dissatisfaction, emotions, and worsening expectations among young people.